January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat This morning’s report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.After adjusting for inflation both personal […] The post January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Blockbuster January retail sales presage gains in jobs
Blockbuster January retail sales presage gains in jobs (Dan here…late posting) [NOTE: I’ll report separately on industrial production later this morning. Real retail sales is my bellwether for the health of the consumer. And after 3 months of declines, we got a huge upturn in January. Before adjusting for inflation, retail sales jumped 5.3% – […] The post Blockbuster January retail sales presage gains in jobs appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row
Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row The story this week is the repeated massive upward revisions to last week’s numbers This week, on a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 5,702 to 862,351. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 13,000 to 861,000 (meaning last week’s original number of 793,000 […] The post Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Welcome to the Vaccination Hunger Games
Welcome to the vaccination Hunger Games That, dear reader, is a slight variation on what my sibling unit said to me when I related the saga of my attempts to schedule a COVID-19 vaccination. As I have mentioned from time to time, I am an Old Fossil. And, well, the supply shortage of the COVID […] The post Welcome to the Vaccination Hunger Games appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Coronavirus dashboard: Groundhog Day
Coronavirus dashboard: Groundhog Day Today is Groundhog Day, America’s version of the midwinter festival, where people can at least begin to look ahead to the coming of spring in the near future. That’s a good analogy for where we are in the COVID pandemic. ;Let me start with the ghastly news.First, there have been over 26 […] The post Coronavirus dashboard: Groundhog Day appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
The only critical number is the doses of vaccine administered
January 2021 jobs report: a strong divergence between very weak job gains, but a big drop in unemployment; but the only critical number is the doses of vaccine administered ;For the past several weeks, based on the increase in initial jobless claims, I have warned that the December employment report might have a negative number, […] The post The only critical number is the doses of vaccine administered appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Manufacturing and construction – remain “on fire”
The two most leading sectors of the real economy – manufacturing and construction – remain “on fire” Data for January 2021 started out this morning with the ISM manufacturing index, while the December laggard of construction spending was also reported. ; While the ISM manufacturing reading declined from 60.7 to 58.7, since 50 is the break-even […] The post Manufacturing and construction – remain “on fire” appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession
Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined […] The post Not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Upward trend confirmed in new jobless claims
Upward trend confirmed in new jobless claims On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 101,498 to 873,966. Seasonally adjusted claims also declined by 67,000 to 847,000. The 4 week moving average, however, rose by 16,250 to 868,000. Since the 4 week average has risen above 850,000, and weekly claims were above 900,000 for […] The post Upward trend confirmed in new jobless claims appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Coronavirus dashboard for January 25: a vaccination race against time vs. the new mutations
Coronavirus dashboard for January 25: a vaccination race against time vs. the new mutations ;All of the significant economic data is backloaded this week, onto Thursday and Friday. So don’t be surprised if I take a day off between now and then.In the meantime, here is a Coronavirus update. First things first: the most ominous […] The post Coronavirus dashboard for January 25: a vaccination race against time vs. the new mutations appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
A detailed, updated look at the housing market
A detailed, updated look at the housing market Existing home sales for December were reported this morning at 6.76 million annualized, just below the October 10 Year+ high of 6.86 million. Although existing home sales are about 90% of the entire housing market, they are less important economically than new housing construction, which has multiplier […] The post A detailed, updated look at the housing market appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
NFIB small business optimism vs. reality
(Better late than never…Dan) This is a really slow news week – on the economy! My retrospective on the Trump Presidency is nearly complete and will be published tomorrow morning. In the meantime, here is a brief note on the Small Business Optimism index which was updated for December last week, showing a steep decline […] The post NFIB small business optimism vs. reality appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Initial jobless claims: still elevated compared with several months ago, another negative jobs report for January a possibility
Initial jobless claims: still elevated compared with several months ago, another negative jobs report for January a possibility Initial jobless claims this week came within a hair of meeting my criteria for a change to an upward trend. ; On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 151,303 to 960,668. Seasonally adjusted claims also declined […] The post Initial jobless claims: still elevated compared with several months ago, another negative jobs report for January a possibility appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
“Those who cannot see must feel:” a retrospective on the Trump presidency
Four years ago I wrote “Those Who Cannot See Must Feel,” which is the (quote)“translation of an old German saying that I used to hear from my grandmother when I misbehaved. ;It is pretty clear that, over the next four years, the American public is going to do a lot of feeling .… ;The results […] The post “Those who cannot see must feel:” a retrospective on the Trump presidency appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Good news (industrial production) and bad news (retail sales)
Good news (industrial production) and bad news (retail sales) This morning’s two reports on industrial production and retail sales for December were a case of good news and bad news. Let’s do the good news first. Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, rose 1.6% in December. The manufacturing component rose by 1.0%. Needless to […] The post Good news (industrial production) and bad news (retail sales) appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
“insurrections, treason, and the pardon power”
The Federalist Papers #74 on insurrections, treason, and the pardon power: an argument that such pardons would be invalid as “arising in a case of impeachment” The Insurrectionists from January 6 are already asking Trump for pardons. Probably the only thing that would hold him back from doing so is his innate selfishness: what would […] The post “insurrections, treason, and the pardon power” appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Scenes from the December jobs report
Scenes from the December jobs report Friday’s December jobs report saw the first decline in employment since the lockdowns of March and April. Let’s take a closer look.As I pointed out Friday, the losses were concentrated in the food and dining (restaurant) and amusement and recreation sectors, both of which are shown below normalized to […] The post Scenes from the December jobs report appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role
Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 231,335 to 1,151,015. Seasonally adjusted claims also rose by 181,000 to 965,000. The 4 week moving average rose by 18,250 to 834,250. Here is the close up since the end of July […] The post Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
November JOLTS report shows the renewed impact of the pandemic, partial lockdowns
November JOLTS report shows the renewed impact of the pandemic, partial lockdowns This morning’s JOLTS report for November (remember – a month in which there were total job gains) showed a jobs market recovery that at least paused due to the increasing effects of the out of control pandemic. Hires were up (good), while quits […] The post November JOLTS report shows the renewed impact of the pandemic, partial lockdowns appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
Programming note
by New Deal democrat Programming note ; Four year ago I wrote a valedictory piece about the Obama Administration, and separately wrote of my fears of what the Trump Administration would wreak. Needless to say, especially in light of events of the past week, I intend to do the same retrospective as to Trump and […] The post Programming note appeared first on Angry Bear. [Read More...]
