Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 238 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this week’s podcast we talk about the spikes in coronavirus cases and how it can impact the US equity and commodity markets. We then dive into the latest weather market for corn and soybeans. We go over possible yield scenarios and probable price ranges. Make sure you take a list to Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Corn The updated weather models today called for cooler… [Read More...]
Canada 2020 midyear outlook
The Canadian economy was brought to a near standstill early in the second quarter on efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus. An Activity restart is underway as new cases decline steadily nationwide. The reopening could prompt an increase in infection rates. It’s also unclear to what extent consumers and workers will reengage as lockdowns ease, given changed behaviors and heightened risk aversion. Our research shows services suffered a worse hit than manufacturing and are likely to restart slower than they collapsed. An oversupplied oil market is another factor adding to the uncertainty. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Canadian economy is set to return to its 2019 level only in 2022 after contracting 8.4% in 2020. A coordinated, decisive and timely response from the Bank of Canada … [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Cattle
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on Friday, July 3, 2020. Open Positions Long the August 2020 Live Cattle on 98.400 (7/02/20). Marked settled at 99.400. Marked-to-market profit of $400. Working Orders Sell stop for the August Live Cattle at 96.100, below the recent lows and Moving Averages, GTC. (Remaining Risk: $920 plus including commission and fees) Sell limit for the August Live Cattle at 108.000, a potential resistance level, GTC. (Reward: $3,840 minus including commission and fees) Closed Positions None. Step into the “Spotlight” Send questions specific to current or past trade recommendations, or any commodity related questions to tradespotlight@danielstrading.com. Beyond the Spotlight Watch your inbox Monday mornings for the Beyond the Spotlight video that will “spotlight” two to … [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Options (June Monthly Summary)
This is the June 2020 Monthly Recap of the Trade Spotlight: Options advisory segment. Open Positions Silver Bull Call Spread (4/29/20) Long the December 2020 Silver 18.00 / 19.00 call spread from 18.0 points. Spread is theoretically 44.1 points. Marked-to-market gain of $1,305. HOLD. The Silver futures price was consolidating within a large Pennant Formation in March and April. Went long the market with a call spread anticipating a breakout of the apex of the formation to the upside. In May and June the market traded sideways, but technicals and fundamentals remain bullish. The market is approaching the target price of 19.000. The option expiration date is not until November 24, 2020. Working Orders None. Closed Positions None. Try Trade Spotlight Suite – for 3 Months Trade Spotlight Suite – Trial – The Trade Spotlight … [Read More...]
Futures Trading Skills to Get You Started
Like most other professions, futures trading requires individuals to possess a few core competencies before they can achieve success. In this article, we’ll address five of the most important trading skills: analytics, focus, discipline, intellectual curiosity, and organization. Skill #1: Analytics No matter what type of trader you are, having an analytical base is the key to crafting strong trading decisions. This may be accomplished via fundamental, technical, or hybrid analysis: Fundamental: Fundamental analysis is the study of qualitative data. Identifying market underpinnings and analyzing the impact of news events are two examples of fundamental analytics. Technical: Technical analysis is the strict quantitative study of price action. Charting, applying indicators, and strategic backtesting are examples of technical analytics. Hybrid: Hybrid analysis involves combining facets of both fundamental … [Read More...]
Bullish TAS Vega Signaling Continued Rally in Equity Futures
We’ve been monitoring continued volatility this week in the equity markets to end the month of June. Uncertainty remains with the virus and if it will continue to shutdown/postpone further re-openings to the US economy. Yesterday afternoon, bulls were able to shake this off and rally higher. I’m seeing a similar technical setup now. With TAS Vega indicating further bullish momentum and TAS Navigator/Ratio flipping to bullish in my 30MIN chart below, I want to buy the ES. I recommend the following. Call me if you need assistance with executing this trade! BUY ESU20 @ 3065.00 or @ Market SELL STOP @ 3050.00 ($750 risk per contract) SELL LIMIT @ 3090.00 ($1,250 profit per contract) The MICRO contract is 1/10th exposure per contract. *Risk/reward … [Read More...]
Bullish Momentum Closes out Q2 with the S&P 500 Moving Higher
Equity futures continued their rally this afternoon which resulted in the S&P 500 closing out its best quarter since Q4 of 1998. This morning I recommended clients to BUY ESU20 @ 3065.00 on bullish momentum I was seeing from the TAS indicators presented in my chart below. We saw some retracement when Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin testified before Congress but equities continued today’s rally higher this afternoon. The front-month ES made a high of 3101.25 so my target was filled for a profit @ 3090.00 ($1,250 profit per contract). Great job to all who participated in this trade with me! Feel free to give me a call about your position or to review this trade together! Trade Recap: BOUGHT ESU20 @ 3065.00 SOLD ESU20 @ 3090.00 … [Read More...]
Futures Day Trading for Beginners
Every year, legions of aspiring traders enter the futures markets hoping to make a living buying and selling contracts. The upsides are obvious: financial and personal freedom. Unfortunately, the number of losing traders far exceeds the tally of winners. Be forewarned: The path to becoming a winning trader can be long and treacherous. Nonetheless, if you’re interested in a career in the markets, then a few lessons on day trading for beginners can help you avoid hidden pitfalls and even financial catastrophe. Lesson 1: The Personal Inventory The old axiom “Know thyself” is especially relevant in futures trading. Before ever placing a market order, it is imperative that you have a good idea of your strengths and weaknesses. Understanding your competencies in several key areas is useful in … [Read More...]
Stocks and bonds aren’t telling different stories
After three months under lockdown, the City of Toronto will soon be allowed to reopen certain nonessential businesses, restoring a semblance of normalcy to one of Canada’s hardest hit urban areas. However, Canada still operates under strict protocols to protect against a renewed increase in infections, according to the University of Oxford’s COVID-19 Government Response Tracker database, which monitors the stringency of public measures to contain the virus across a range of countries (see the chart below). But having brought the number of new cases under control, Canada will likely follow the arc of Europe and Japan where measures have recently been relaxed. Global equity markets have risen sharply since late March when widespread uncertainty over the swift spread of lockdown measures prompted broad risk-off moves. … [Read More...]
Continues to Ooze sweet
I wrote about this company as “The only company I like in Australia” two years backhttp://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2013/09/roe.htmlFor a developed country, it offered decent growth and was below the radar. Sadly, I only talked but not walked as the company was satisfied with 10% revenue growth. The stock has grown quite well backed by acquisitions, not only organic growth, and is 6 times up since 2013 when I wrote i.e. 210% CAGR.Even now no institution has evinced much interest in CAPILANO HONEY It is certainly hard to foresee such a strong performance from a mere low revenue compounder.But the 70% market share Capilano had in Australia, conjoined with 5% yield was screaming for attention.These days I am mulling a company which is … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take | Fed To Buy Corporate Bonds
Macro Markets The stock market opened lower last night and traded lower through mid-morning. Once the Fed announced they will be buying individual corporate bonds the markets all seemed to get stronger. This is a new form of stimulus that will provide liquidity to corporations. The bonds will have to meet minimum financial requirements (no junk bonds) and this will help corporations find liquidity and financial when they need it. This action should be supportive overall for the markets except the US dollar. If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Ag Markets It was a quiet day for grain and … [Read More...]
The Key Takeaways of Trading vs. Investing
Perhaps the biggest misconception among the public regarding trading is that trading and investing are the same thing. Nothing could be further from the truth?each is a separate discipline, with unique functions and goals. If you’re new to the capital markets, then understanding trading versus investing is a key first lesson in your education. Building Wealth Through Investing The primary goal of investing is to build wealth by assuming long-term positions in various financial markets. Championed by traditional “buy-and-hold” practitioners such as Warren Buffett, investing is a time-honored method of securing market share. Essentially, investing is the art of capitalizing on macro trends by spotting an asset’s intrinsic value. This goal may be accomplished in a variety of ways, but it is often … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Corn and Soybean Spreads
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 236 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast Today we talk about why the stock market valuation are so much higher than what their earnings suggest and why it is likely to continue. We also dive into the energy, grain, and livestock markets. There are some seasonal spreads in corn and soybeans that we like and we are still bullish on soybean oil, crude oil, and the deferred contracts for hogs and cattle. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out… [Read More...]
Basic Contract Specifications for the Cattle Futures Market
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in 2018, cattle sales accounted for $67.1 billion in revenue and 18 percent of the total American ag market. Given this exceedingly large industrial footprint, cattle futures are attractive instruments for speculators and hedgers alike. Live vs. Feeder Cattle When it comes to trading cattle futures, there are several key distinctions to be aware of. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lists two cattle-specific contracts. Here’s a quick look at the underlying asset of each: Live cattle: Until new calves reach a designated weight between 600-800 pounds, they are considered to be “live cattle.” Live cattle are typically bred in the summer, with calving season in the spring. This timing aims to take advantage of beneficial weather patterns and optimal grazing … [Read More...]
Trade Spotlight: Futures – Weekly Summary: Cattle, Pound
This is the Weekly Summary Email of the Trade Spotlight advisory service for the week ending on Friday, June 19, 2020. Open Positions None. Working Orders Buy the August 2020 Live Cattle on 98.400 using a stop order, GTC. If filled: Place sell stop at 95.500, below the lower trend line, GTC. (Initial Risk: $1,160 plus including commission and fees). Place sell limit at 108.000, a potential resistance level, GTC. (Reward: $3,840 minus including commission and fees) Sell the September 2020 British Pound at 1.2375 using a limit order, GTC. If filled: Risk: Place buy stop on 1.2515, above the 20-day Moving Average, GTC. (Initial Risk: $875 plus including commission and fees). Target: Place buy limit on 1.2100, a potential support level, GTC. (Reward: $1,718.75 minus including commission and fees) Closed Positions None. Step into the “Spotlight” … [Read More...]
Beyond the Spotlight: June 22, 2020 (Pound, Cattle)
Beyond the Spotlight is a weekly video released on Mondays that spotlights two or three markets that may become trading opportunities for the week ahead. This enables you as a subscriber of the Trade Spotlight advisory service to look ahead with us, while potentially creating additional trading opportunities for yourself. The week’s video linked below covers two markets: British Pound and Live Cattle Beyond the Spotlight for the Week of June 22, 2020 Try Trade Spotlight Suite – for 3 Months Trade Spotlight Suite – Trial – The Trade Spotlight advisory service consists of three segments covering futures, futures spreads, and commodity options. At the end of each trading day the commodity markets are analyzed by applying our methodology and recommendations are delivered to you based on our trading … [Read More...]
Top Tips to Sow the Seeds of Grain Trading Success
Every year, the changing of the seasons has a profound impact on a broad spectrum of futures markets. For ag products, the planting, harvesting, and marketing months create a multitude of pricing tendencies. Within the ever-shifting ag environment, there are a few grain trading tips that have proven historically useful for farmers. Let’s take a look at the concept of seasonality and how it impacts ag futures. Pay Attention to Seasonality At the crux of any commodity’s value is the relationship between supply and demand. Simply put, if demand outpaces supply, prices rise; if supply exceeds demand, prices fall. Seasonality refers to evolving supply/demand levels and the subsequent commodity pricing trends of a certain month(s). A best practice for producers is to maintain awareness of … [Read More...]
Turner’s Take Podcast: Unemployment Report is a Major Bullish Surprise
Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 234 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. In this podcast we go over the major bullish surprise in today’s employment report. We then go over why we still like crude oil. equities, soybean oil, live cattle, and lean hogs. We also talk about why we are not a optimistic for gold and treasuries. . Finally we talk about a strategy that could lead to farmers begin able to sell $3.90 new crop corn… [Read More...]
Futures Trading Tools You Probably Don’t Know About
Futures trading tools come in all shapes and sizes, each designed to help traders sustain profitability. No matter whether you are a strict market technician or you favor traditional fundamentals, there’s an array of performance-enhancing devices at your fingertips. Among the most common are software platforms, indicators, and news feeds. In this article, we will talk about a few trading tools that are vastly underutilized. If you’re not familiar with the benefits of third-party applications, advisory services, or broker expertise, then stay tuned! Third-Party Trading Applications The rise of the digital marketplace has brought advanced futures trading technologies to the masses. Analytics that were once limited to institutional or high-net-worth traders and investors are now available at the retail level. In essence, … [Read More...]
Taking the long view
This past week, the incoming economic data confirmed what we already know: the economy was brought to a standstill heading into the second quarter to contain the spread of the coronavirus and limit the humanitarian toll. On Friday, Statistics Canada announced that economic activity declined at an annualized rate of 8% in the first quarter, slightly better than its initial flash estimate of -10%. Unsurprisingly, a record drop in consumer spending drove the bulk of the slowdown, whereas business investment fell more modestly. But as bad as this reading was, the data are likely to worsen before they improve. The impact of widespread shutdowns is expected to weigh more heavily during the second quarter when economists expect real GDP to contract between 40%-50% on an annualized … [Read More...]
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